DFW Real Estate: Why McKinney Is Holding While the Rest of DFW Softens — April 2026
Texas housing is softening. Dallas is down roughly 4% year-over-year. Austin is down almost 4%. Outer suburbs that built like crazy during the boom — Frisco, Prosper, Celina — are sitting on the most inventory and taking the biggest price hits.
And right in the middle of all that, McKinney is still ranked the #1 housing market in America in WalletHub's most recent national study — for the third year in a row.
That isn't luck. That's infrastructure.
Why is McKinney holding while the rest of DFW softens?
McKinney is holding because the city has spent years committing real money to infrastructure that produces jobs and reduces friction — and now that infrastructure is hitting the ground at the exact moment the broader DFW market is cooling. When a metro softens, the submarkets that hold are the ones with concrete reasons for demand. McKinney has them. Frisco, Prosper, and Celina built faster than their underlying job base could absorb, and they're paying for it now.
The single biggest piece of infrastructure on the table: McKinney National Airport (TKI). The city broke ground on a $79 million commercial terminal in summer 2025, signed Avelo Airlines as the first carrier in December, and is on schedule to open commercial passenger service in late 2026. Capacity at launch is 200,000 passengers annually, expandable to over one million. That makes TKI the third commercial airport in DFW after DFW International and Love Field.
That isn't just a convenience for travelers. It's a permanent demand driver for everything within a 20-minute drive of the runway.
Why does an airport move home prices?
Airports move home prices because they pull jobs, business travel, hotel demand, and corporate relocations into a tight geographic radius. Every commercial airport in Texas history has done this. Look at what Love Field did to North Oak Lawn. Look at what DFW did to Las Colinas and Grapevine. The pattern is reliable: announce the airport, break ground, watch land within a 5-mile ring re-rate.
McKinney already has the population to absorb it. The city has grown 17% since 2020. Collin County sits at roughly 1.2 million residents. Average asking price in McKinney is hovering around $461,000 in early 2026, and homes are still going pending in about 12 days even in a softening DFW market.
Now layer in what the airport actually unlocks:
- 980-space parking lot with capacity to grow to 1,450
- A new FM 546 roundabout and Taxiway C — meaning road infrastructure improves alongside the airport
- Federal grants and passenger facility charges that fund ongoing operations without raising local property taxes
- Avelo's office and administrative space committed for at least five years
That's a permanent jobs anchor. And jobs are what hold home values up when mortgage rates don't cooperate.
What does this actually mean for DFW homeowners right now?
For DFW homeowners in McKinney and the surrounding zip codes, this means your equity position is more durable than the headlines suggest — but only if you're inside the infrastructure ring. The closer you are to TKI, US-75, and the SH-121 corridor, the more insulated you are from the Frisco/Prosper-style price softness.
Here's the practical read for someone considering selling in the next 12 months. If you own a clean, updated home in 75070, 75071, or 75072 and you can wait, the infrastructure tailwind is on your side. If you own a tired, distressed, or inherited property, the math is different. Carrying costs — taxes, insurance, maintenance, vacancy — eat through any future appreciation faster than most people expect.
Earlier this month I bought a 4 bed, 3 bath, 2,424 sqft 2004-build off Hwy 5 for $275K. Seller had inherited it, didn't want to spend $65K updating it, and we closed in 12 days.
That's the trade-off in plain English. A retail listing on that same house probably nets more — eventually. A cash close nets less, faster, with zero showings, no inspection drama, and no contingency risk.
Should every McKinney seller take a cash offer?
No — and I'd be lying to you if I said otherwise. A cash offer is always lower than a fully marketed, retail-priced listing. If your house is clean, updated, photographs well, and you can sit through 30-60 days of showings while the listing season works in your favor, list it traditional. You'll likely net more.
A cash offer makes sense when speed and certainty are worth more than the last 8-12% of price. That's situational. If you're going through probate, divorce, behind on payments, sitting on a vacant rental, or staring at $30K-$50K in deferred maintenance you don't want to fund — the math flips. The discount on price is the price you pay to skip the chaos.
I tell every seller the same thing: get both numbers. Get a real listing CMA from a real agent. Get a written cash offer from me. Compare them with full transparency on time, repair cost, and risk. Then decide.
What does this mean for DFW investors?
For DFW investors, this means the acquisition window in Collin County is narrowing fast — and the next 6-8 months are the time to lock in basis before TKI opens. Once commercial flights launch in late 2026, the comp set in McKinney resets. The properties that look like marginal flips at today's ARVs will look like obvious wins at 2027 ARVs. But you have to underwrite conservatively today, because the broader DFW market is still softening even as McKinney holds.
I'm running my buyer list around three filters right now: 2000 or older build, within a 15-minute drive of TKI or US-75, and at least 1,000 square feet of livable space. That's where the math still works.
Bottom line
McKinney is the proof that not all DFW submarkets are softening equally. Infrastructure pays. The airport is real, the funding is committed, and the terminal opens this year. If you own here, you're in a stronger position than the metro average. If you invest here, the basis you lock in now is the basis you live with for the next decade.
If you want a written cash offer in 24 hours on a McKinney property, go to callahanhomebuyers.com or call (214) 226-1193.
If you're an investor and you want on the off-market buyer list for Collin County deals as TKI comes online, sign up at callahanhomebuyers.com#investors.
Caleb Callahan is a licensed Texas agent (TREC License 837919) and direct cash buyer in the DFW metro through Callahan Home Buyers. Need a written cash offer in 24 hours? Visit callahanhomebuyers.com or call (214) 226-1193.